← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: Max Burda, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 56% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.81 |
| Bielefeld win | 19% | 5.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Bielefeld −0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.66 |
| Under | 41% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Mattes Hansen · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 16' | ⚽ (pen) | Joel Grodowski · Bielefeld |
| 26' | ⚽ | Mika Baur · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 29' | ⚽ | Monju Momuluh · Bielefeld |
| 31' | 🟨 | Raphael Obermair · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 34' | 🟨 | Sebastian Klaas · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 34' | 🟨 | Monju Momuluh · Bielefeld |
| 50' | ⚽ | Steffen Tigges · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Filip Bilbija · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 62' | ⚽ | Steffen Tigges · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 68' |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 16 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Home Deluxe Arena |
| 🟨 |
| Noah Joel Sarenren Bazee · Bielefeld |
| 69' | 🟨 | Nick Bätzner · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 72' | 🟨 | Laurin Curda · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Tim Handwerker · Bielefeld |
| 79' | 🟨 | Tim Handwerker · Bielefeld |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1570.00 | 840.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1557.05 | 1392.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.98 | -23.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.60 |
| league points | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 14.77 | 12.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.08 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.91 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |