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Karlsruhe 2–3 Kaiserslautern

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: Robin Braun, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe win38%2.55
Kaiserslautern win36%2.77
Draw26%3.69

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe +051%1.90
Kaiserslautern +049%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.59
Under40%2.44

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Ivan Prtajin · Kaiserslautern
16'🟨Mika Haas · Kaiserslautern
26'🟨Rafael Pinto Pedrosa · Karlsruhe
28'🟨Christoph Kobald · Karlsruhe
28'🟨Faride Alidou · Kaiserslautern
29'🟨Lilian Egloff · Karlsruhe
54'⚽Naatan Skyttä · Kaiserslautern
58'⚽Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe
62'🟨Philipp Förster · Karlsruhe
83'⚽Lilian Egloff · Karlsruhe
88'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
18Shots12
10On target4
7Corners1
17Fouls13
6Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKarlsruheKaiserslautern
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.690.69
cards avg (last 5)2.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBBBank Wildpark
Fabian Kunze
· Kaiserslautern
90'🟨Eymen Laghrissi · Karlsruhe
90'🟨Hans Christian Bernat · Karlsruhe
90'🟨Marlon Ritter · Kaiserslautern
90'⚽Marlon Ritter · Kaiserslautern
2.80
coach days2086.00200.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.16
corner diff avg (last 5)0.401.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.203.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.605.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.592.67
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.08
dominance (last 5)0.450.52
elo1513.231491.21
elo momentum (last 5)-6.8541.93
eye test v10.461.07
eye trend v1-0.030.45
first sub minute (last 10)61.8054.40
form points (last 5)8.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.261.51
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.740.75
league points15.0015.00
league rank7.008.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6074.20
possession avg (last 5)47.4044.60
rest days13.6914.00
scorer concentration0.270.54
season ppg1.881.67
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.000.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.0015.40
skill v10.02-0.65
sot against avg (last 5)5.205.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.804.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.336.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.006.60
state index0.090.38
sterile dominance v1-0.43-1.26
threat rate (last 10)0.300.30
threat rate (last 3)0.350.40
threat rate (last 5)0.300.36
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.60