⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Hannover 0–3 FC Schalke 04

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Oct 17, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Martin Petersen, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover win48%2.05
Draw27%3.50
FC Schalke 04 win25%3.84

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Schalke 04 −0.552%1.85
Hannover −0.548%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.92
Under48%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Moussa Sylla · FC Schalke 04
14'⚽Moussa Sylla · FC Schalke 04
45'🟨Kenan Karaman · FC Schalke 04
78'🟨Hasan Kuruçay · FC Schalke 04
85'⚽Christian Gomis · FC Schalke 04

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
13Shots16
3On target5
9Corners7
7Fouls20
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHannoverFC Schalke 04
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.760.70
cards avg (last 5)1.801.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeinz-von-Heiden-Arena
coach days199.00169.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.150.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.10
corner diff avg (last 5)5.401.80
corners against avg (last 5)2.203.80
corners for avg (last 5)7.605.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.652.74
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.04
dominance (last 5)0.590.62
elo1499.431456.15
elo momentum (last 5)-8.4335.71
eye test v10.360.05
eye trend v1-0.06-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)50.4055.60
form points (last 5)8.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.79
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.710.74
league points17.0018.00
league rank6.003.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet6.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.0070.00
possession avg (last 5)61.4044.00
rest days12.2112.21
scorer concentration0.330.25
season ppg2.132.25
shot diff avg (last 5)4.806.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.6014.60
skill v11.41-1.07
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.40
squad age—26.69
state index0.010.49
sterile dominance v11.00-1.27
threat rate (last 10)0.270.30
threat rate (last 3)0.220.34
threat rate (last 5)0.240.33
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.80