← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Oct 17, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Schwengers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 50% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.71 |
| Braunschweig win | 24% | 4.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Braunschweig −0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.70 |
| Under | 44% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Christian Joe Conteh · Braunschweig |
| 39' | ⚽ | Max Marie · Braunschweig |
| 45' | 🟨 | Cédric Itten · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 61' | 🟨 | Louis Breunig · Braunschweig |
| 65' | ⚽ | Kenneth Schmidt · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 75' | 🟨 | Sven Köhler · Braunschweig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Braunschweig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Merkur Spiel-Arena |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 1354.00 | 77.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1475.79 | 1356.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.54 | -47.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| league points | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.43 | -1.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |