← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Ittrich, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 43% | 2.25 |
| Karlsruhe win | 31% | 3.21 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.70 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Dresden −0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.70 |
| Under | 43% | 2.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Nils Fröling · Dresden |
| 11' | ⚽ | Marcel Beifus · Karlsruhe |
| 37' | ⚽ | Lilian Egloff · Karlsruhe |
| 52' | ⚽ | Christoph Daferner · Dresden |
| 61' | ⚽ | Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stefan Kutschke · Dresden |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcel Beifus · Karlsruhe |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jakob Lemmer · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 22 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion |
| coach days | 460.00 | 2072.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 2.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1328.01 | 1516.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.64 | 5.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.80 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.81 |
| league points | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 8.08 | 7.31 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | -1.04 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |