← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: Felix Prigan, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 40% | 2.38 |
| Darmstadt win | 33% | 3.02 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.63 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt −0.25 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.65 |
| Under | 42% | 2.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Carl Johansson · Holstein Kiel |
| 54' | ⚽ | Isac Lidberg · Darmstadt |
| 57' | 🟨 | Marcel Schuhen · Darmstadt |
| 66' | ⚽ | David Zec · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 64.00 | 398.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1508.72 | 1483.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.38 | 21.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.54 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |