← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Oct 3, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Wolfgang Haslberger, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 39% | 2.50 |
| Nurnberg win | 35% | 2.81 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.72 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Nurnberg +0 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.70 |
| Under | 44% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Adam Markhiev · Nurnberg |
| 25' | ⚽ | Rafael Lubach · Nurnberg |
| 42' | 🟨 | Anouar El Azzouzi · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 61' | 🟨 | Tim Christopher Oberdorf · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 67' | ⚽ | Anouar El Azzouzi · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 70' | 🟨 | Tim Breithaupt · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Julian Justvan · Nurnberg |
| 83' | ⚽ | Christian Rasmussen · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 85' | ⚽ | Finn Ole Becker · Nurnberg |
| 88' | 🟨 | Finn Ole Becker · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Merkur Spiel-Arena |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 1340.00 | 489.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1490.22 | 1384.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.12 | -18.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| league points | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | — |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.00 | 0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |