← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 28, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Marc Philip Eckermann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 42% | 2.28 |
| Hertha win | 32% | 3.07 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.73 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha −0.25 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Nurnberg −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.61 |
| Under | 41% | 2.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Marten Winkler · Hertha |
| 41' | ⚽ | Michaël Cuisance · Hertha |
| 45' | 🟨 | Fabian Reese · Hertha |
| 58' | 🟨 | Kennet Eichhorn · Hertha |
| 59' | 🟨 | Márton Dárdai · Hertha |
| 77' | 🟨 | Tim Drexler · Nurnberg |
| 85' | ⚽ | Dawid Kownacki · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Eryk Grzywacz · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 484.00 | 239.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 3.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1404.27 | 1425.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.36 | -11.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| league points | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 7.71 | 8.02 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.63 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.08 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |