← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: Konrad Oldhafer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 47% | 2.05 |
| Kaiserslautern win | 28% | 3.58 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.83 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern −0.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.74 |
| Under | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Mattes Hansen · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mika Baur · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 45' | 🟥 | Maxwell Gyamfi · Kaiserslautern |
| 49' | ⚽ | Filip Bilbija · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 53' | ⚽ | Laurin Curda · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 9 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Home Deluxe Arena |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 1549.00 | 179.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1540.02 | 1493.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.48 | 38.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.75 |
| league points | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |