← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: Wolfgang Haslberger, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 41% | 2.40 |
| Magdeburg win | 34% | 3.03 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.80 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe +0 | 55% | 1.80 |
| Magdeburg +0 | 45% | 2.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 1.59 |
| Under | 38% | 2.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 46' | 🟨 | Marcel Beifus · Karlsruhe |
| 71' | 🟨 | Silas Gnaka · Magdeburg |
| 82' | 🟨 | Luka Hyrylainen · Magdeburg |
| 83' | 🟨 | Max Geschwill · Magdeburg |
| 84' | ⚽ | Christoph Kobald · Karlsruhe |
| 86' | 🟨 | Rayan Ghrieb · Magdeburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Shio Fukuda · Karlsruhe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcus Mathisen · Magdeburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lubambo Musonda · Magdeburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 21 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | Magdeburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| venue | BBBank Wildpark |
| coach days | 2065.00 | 26.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1510.68 | 1427.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.26 | -51.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.57 |
| league points | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.13 | -1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |