← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Sep 26, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Alt, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 56% | 1.71 |
| Dresden win | 22% | 4.40 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.47 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt −0.75 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Dresden −0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.53 |
| Under | 37% | 2.69 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Isac Lidberg · Darmstadt |
| 48' | ⚽ | Fraser Hornby · Darmstadt |
| 55' | 🟨 | Niklas Hauptmann · Dresden |
| 66' | 🟨 | Marco Richter · Darmstadt |
| 83' | 🟨 | Bartosz Białek · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor |
| coach days | 390.00 | 452.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 3.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1514.01 | 1372.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.08 | 22.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.64 |
| league points | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.55 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.06 | 26.31 |
| state index | 0.44 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | -0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |