← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 21, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Michael Bacher, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 49% | 2.01 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.76 |
| Karlsruhe win | 26% | 3.75 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe −0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Holstein Kiel −0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.73 |
| Under | 43% | 2.36 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Hans Christian Bernat · Karlsruhe |
| 25' | ⚽ | Adrián Kaprálik · Holstein Kiel |
| 32' | 🟨 | Lilian Egloff · Karlsruhe |
| 35' | ⚽ | David Zec · Holstein Kiel |
| 42' | 🟨 | Magnus Knudsen · Holstein Kiel |
| 45' | 🟨 | David Zec · Holstein Kiel |
| 50' | 🟨 | Christoph Kobald · Karlsruhe |
| 55' | 🟨 | Robert Wagner · Holstein Kiel |
| 71' | ⚽ | Phil Harres · Holstein Kiel |
| 78' | 🟨 | Marko Ivezić · Holstein Kiel |
| 86' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| Adrián Kaprálik · Holstein Kiel |
| coach days | 51.00 | 2059.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1507.13 | 1526.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.61 | 21.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.86 |
| league points | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 8.02 | 8.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |