← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 21, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Max Burda, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hannover win | 40% | 2.40 |
| Dresden win | 34% | 2.99 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hannover +0 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Dresden +0 | 46% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.74 |
| Under | 42% | 2.35 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ (pen) | Benedikt Pichler · Hannover |
| 14' | 🟨 | Daisuke Yokota · Hannover |
| 35' | ⚽ (og) | Virgil Ghiță · Dresden |
| 41' | ⚽ | Nils Fröling · Dresden |
| 43' | ⚽ | Noël Aséko · Hannover |
| 45' | 🟨 | Luca Herrmann · Dresden |
| 54' | 🟥 | Vinko Šapina · Dresden |
| 56' | 🟨 | Christoph Daferner · Dresden |
| 85' | 🟨 | Konrad Faber · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion |
| coach days | 447.00 | 173.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1332.33 | 1494.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.47 | 24.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.76 |
| league points | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 2.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | 1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.70 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |