← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Lars Erbst, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 44% | 2.20 |
| Bochum win | 30% | 3.18 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.77 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Bochum −0.25 | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Erhan Mašović · Bochum |
| 39' | 🟨 | Kevin Vogt · Bochum |
| 45' | 🟨 | Cajetan Lenz · Bochum |
| 61' | 🟨 | Philipp Strompf · Bochum |
| 68' | ⚽ | Julian Justvan · Nurnberg |
| 76' | 🟨 | Noah Loosli · Bochum |
| 85' | 🟨 | Tim Janisch · Nurnberg |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Ibrahim Sissoko · Bochum |
| 90' | ⚽ | Adriano Grimaldi · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 476.00 | 262.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1392.99 | 1497.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.81 | -18.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 45.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.31 | 8.08 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.17 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.47 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.90 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |