← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: Felix Bickel, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Magdeburg win | 40% | 2.47 |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 33% | 2.90 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Magdeburg +0 | 54% | 1.81 |
| FC Schalke 04 +0 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.63 |
| Under | 41% | 2.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Kenan Karaman · FC Schalke 04 |
| 55' | 🟨 | Rayan Ghrieb · Magdeburg |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Kenan Karaman · FC Schalke 04 |
| 65' | 🟨 | Nikola Katic · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dariusz Stalmach · Magdeburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Magdeburg | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Avnet-Arena |
| coach days | 19.00 | 142.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1446.20 | 1419.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.54 | 13.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| league points | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.77 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | — |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | -0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.69 |
| state index | -0.79 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | -0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |