← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: Felix Prigan, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 37% | 2.60 |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 36% | 2.69 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha +0 | 52% | 1.91 |
| SC Paderborn 07 +0 | 48% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.73 |
| Under | 44% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Santiago Castaneda · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 34' | 🟨 | Kennet Eichhorn · Hertha |
| 38' | ⚽ | Filip Bilbija · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Deyovaisio Zeefuik · Hertha |
| 46' | 🟨 | Julian Eitschberger · Hertha |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Filip Bilbija · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kevin Sessa · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days | 231.00 | 1542.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.66 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1438.91 | 1526.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.23 | 0.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.76 |
| league points | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 6.69 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.08 | — |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |