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Bielefeld 1–3 Greuther Furth

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Sep 19, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Welz, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bielefeld win55%1.76
Draw24%3.92
Greuther Furth win21%4.73

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bielefeld −0.7551%1.95
Greuther Furth −0.7549%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over65%1.48
Under35%2.78

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'⚽Noel Futkeu · Greuther Furth
36'🟨Felix Klaus · Greuther Furth
45'🟨Isaiah Young · Bielefeld
50'⚽Marius Wörl · Bielefeld
80'⚽Marco John · Greuther Furth
82'🟨Marvin Mehlem · Bielefeld
90'⚽Felix Klaus · Greuther Furth

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
15Shots11
5On target7
6Corners3
11Fouls22
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBielefeldGreuther Furth
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.650.54
cards avg (last 5)3.802.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSchücoArena
coach days811.00141.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.16
corner diff avg (last 5)1.200.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.491.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.19
dominance (last 5)0.490.45
elo1431.481382.24
elo momentum (last 5)45.29-18.81
eye test v10.390.11
eye trend v1-0.350.12
first sub minute (last 10)56.4059.60
form points (last 5)10.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.202.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.431.78
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.35
keeper form v10.800.63
league points10.006.00
league rank6.0015.00
matches since blank6.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.0016.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6079.60
possession avg (last 5)54.8045.60
rest days7.005.21
scorer concentration0.300.40
season ppg2.001.20
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.40-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.0013.20
skill v10.31-0.09
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.003.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.20
state index0.35-0.79
sterile dominance v10.27-0.44
threat rate (last 10)0.290.29
threat rate (last 3)0.240.26
threat rate (last 5)0.250.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80