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Greuther Furth 0–3 Kaiserslautern

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 14, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Richard Hempel, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Greuther Furth win39%2.48
Kaiserslautern win33%2.90
Draw28%3.53

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Greuther Furth +055%1.81
Kaiserslautern +045%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.64
Under41%2.33

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'🟥Noah König · Greuther Furth
6'🟨Paul Joly · Kaiserslautern
23'🟨Faride Alidou · Kaiserslautern
33'⚽Naatan Skyttä · Kaiserslautern
38'🟨Mathias Olesen · Greuther Furth
43'🟨Mika Haas · Kaiserslautern
45'🟨Naatan Skyttä · Kaiserslautern
45'🟨Maxwell Gyamfi · Kaiserslautern
53'🟨Fabian Kunze · Kaiserslautern
58'⚽Ivan Prtajin · Kaiserslautern
64'⚽Ivan Prtajin · Kaiserslautern

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
8Shots14
3On target6
4Corners5
9Fouls15
1Yellow cards6
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGreuther FurthKaiserslautern
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.620.54
cards avg (last 5)3.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
coach days
136.00
166.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.210.07
corner diff avg (last 5)0.201.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.891.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.10
dominance (last 5)0.470.45
elo1399.621462.13
elo momentum (last 5)12.440.02
eye test v10.22-0.41
eye trend v10.02-0.25
first sub minute (last 10)59.5056.40
form points (last 5)9.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.721.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
keeper form v10.620.69
league points6.006.00
league rank13.0014.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet15.003.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6075.40
possession avg (last 5)46.2048.40
rest days14.0014.00
scorer concentration0.40—
season ppg1.501.20
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.0011.20
skill v1-0.14-0.29
sot against avg (last 5)4.805.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.005.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.60
state index-0.27-0.28
sterile dominance v1-0.59-0.08
threat rate (last 10)0.300.29
threat rate (last 3)0.290.27
threat rate (last 5)0.300.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.20