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Hannover 0–3 Hertha

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 13, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Stegemann

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover win56%1.81
Draw23%4.10
Hertha win21%5.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover −0.7551%2.04
Hertha −0.7549%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.57
Under39%2.54

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'🟨Marten Winkler · Hertha
51'⚽Marten Winkler · Hertha
54'🟨Julian Eitschberger · Hertha
56'🟨Noël Aséko · Hannover
66'🟨Boris Tomiak · Hannover
68'⚽Dawid Kownacki · Hertha
82'🟨Kennet Eichhorn · Hertha
84'🟨Toni Leistner · Hertha
88'🟨Kevin Sessa · Hertha
90'⚽Jan Luca Schuler · Hertha

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
21Shots9
3On target3
15Corners0
13Fouls19
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHannoverHertha
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.670.67
cards avg (last 5)2.801.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeinz-von-Heiden-Arena
coach days165.00224.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.05
congestion 21d1.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.03
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.006.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.805.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.953.25
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.07
dominance (last 5)0.550.45
elo1519.601413.63
elo momentum (last 5)51.27-31.43
eye test v10.49-0.36
eye trend v10.060.15
first sub minute (last 10)56.7059.20
form points (last 5)13.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.710.95
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v1—0.76
league points12.002.00
league rank1.0018.00
matches since blank11.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win0.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.8082.20
possession avg (last 5)51.2051.00
rest days14.3115.08
scorer concentration0.43—
season ppg3.000.40
shot diff avg (last 5)2.40-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.2012.80
skill v10.650.49
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.20
squad age—25.08
state index0.78-0.89
sterile dominance v10.030.21
threat rate (last 10)0.270.23
threat rate (last 3)0.300.27
threat rate (last 5)0.280.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40