← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 13, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: T. Bauer
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 47% | 2.10 |
| Nurnberg win | 27% | 3.74 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg −0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Karlsruhe −0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.62 |
| Under | 41% | 2.46 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | ⚽ | Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe |
| 45' | ⚽ | Henri Koudossou · Nurnberg |
| 75' | ⚽ | Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe |
| 83' | 🟨 | Dženis Burnić · Karlsruhe |
| 83' | 🟨 | Berkay Yılmaz · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hans Christian Bernat · Karlsruhe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 24 |
| 7 | On target | 10 |
| 6 | Corners | 10 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | BBBank Wildpark |
| coach days | 2051.00 | 469.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1520.95 | 1398.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.68 | -25.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.68 |
| league points | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 13.69 | 14.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.59 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |