← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Sep 12, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Exner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 52% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.83 |
| Bochum win | 23% | 4.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Bochum −0.5 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.61 |
| Under | 40% | 2.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Philipp Hofmann · Bochum |
| 53' | 🟨 | Cajetan Lenz · Bochum |
| 58' | 🟨 | Romario Rösch · Bochum |
| 68' | 🟨 | Gerrit Holtmann · Bochum |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ruben Muller · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lucas Copado · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Home Deluxe Arena |
| coach days | 1534.00 | 254.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1518.26 | 1505.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.24 | -14.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 48.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.58 |
| league points | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.23 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.36 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |