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Magdeburg 4–5 Greuther Furth

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 31, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: P. Alt

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Magdeburg win49%1.98
Greuther Furth win27%3.60
Draw24%4.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Greuther Furth −0.551%1.91
Magdeburg −0.549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over65%1.48
Under35%2.77

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Aaron Keller · Greuther Furth
24'⚽Noel Futkeu · Greuther Furth
28'⚽Alexander Ahl Holmstrom · Magdeburg
59'🟨Max Geschwill · Magdeburg
62'⚽Felix Klaus · Greuther Furth
64'⚽Alexander Ahl Holmstrom · Magdeburg
67'🟨Alexander Nollenberger · Magdeburg
69'⚽Noel Futkeu · Greuther Furth
71'🟨Barış Atik · Magdeburg
71'🟨Alexander Nollenberger · Magdeburg
71'🟥

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
19Shots13
7On target7
2Corners3
16Fouls10
5Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMagdeburgGreuther Furth
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.670.64
cards avg (last 5)3.002.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAvnet-Arena
Alexander Nollenberger · Magdeburg
76'⚽Felix Klaus · Greuther Furth
83'⚽Rayan Ghrieb · Magdeburg
84'🟨Rayan Ghrieb · Magdeburg
87'🟨Philipp Ziereis · Greuther Furth
90'🟨Felix Klaus · Greuther Furth
90'🟨Jannik Dehm · Greuther Furth
90'⚽Noah Pesch · Magdeburg
90'⚽Marco John · Greuther Furth
coach days242.00122.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.150.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.14
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.121.89
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.15
dominance (last 5)0.450.48
elo1474.521385.57
elo momentum (last 5)-11.432.45
eye test v10.47-0.10
eye trend v10.110.23
first sub minute (last 10)48.4060.90
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.35
keeper form v10.640.67
league points3.003.00
league rank17.0015.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet7.0014.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.8076.80
possession avg (last 5)52.2044.00
rest days8.027.00
scorer concentration—0.40
season ppg1.001.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.00-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.0014.20
skill v10.71-0.45
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.60
state index-0.18-0.57
sterile dominance v10.40-0.95
threat rate (last 10)0.230.29
threat rate (last 3)0.260.31
threat rate (last 5)0.240.33
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.20