← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 31, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: B. Brand
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 42% | 2.29 |
| Kaiserslautern win | 30% | 3.21 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern +0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Darmstadt +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.79 |
| Under | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Afeez Aremu · Kaiserslautern |
| 55' | 🟨 | Kim Ji-Soo · Kaiserslautern |
| 62' | ⚽ | Isac Lidberg · Darmstadt |
| 64' | 🟨 | Fraser Hornby · Darmstadt |
| 72' | 🟨 | Luca Marseiler · Darmstadt |
| 84' | ⚽ | Naatan Skyttä · Kaiserslautern |
| 90' | ⚽ | Faride Alidou · Kaiserslautern |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tobias Raschl · Kaiserslautern |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 17 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kaiserslautern | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Fritz Walter Stadion |
| coach days | 152.00 | 364.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1482.99 | 1498.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.63 | 28.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.73 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| league points | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.17 | 26.96 |
| state index | -0.37 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |