← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 31, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Hartmann
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 45% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.42 |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 27% | 3.62 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| FC Schalke 04 −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.88 |
| Under | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Finn Porath · FC Schalke 04 |
| 66' | 🟨 | Soufiane El-Faouzi · FC Schalke 04 |
| 75' | 🟨 | Felipe Sánchez · FC Schalke 04 |
| 82' | 🟨 | Luca Herrmann · Dresden |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Kenan Karaman · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Timo Becker · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion |
| coach days | 426.00 | 122.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1365.05 | 1455.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.93 | -2.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| league points | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.34 | 27.37 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |