← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 30, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: T. Gansloweit
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 38% | 2.68 |
| Hannover win | 36% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.70 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel +0 | 51% | 1.99 |
| Hannover +0 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.67 |
| Under | 43% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Phil Harres · Holstein Kiel |
| 38' | 🟨 | Magnus Knudsen · Holstein Kiel |
| 46' | 🟨 | Jonas Therkelsen · Holstein Kiel |
| 62' | ⚽ | Virgil Ghiță · Hannover |
| 69' | ⚽ | Benjamin Källman · Hannover |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ime Okon · Hannover |
| 80' | 🟨 | Boris Tomiak · Hannover |
| 80' | 🟨 | Maurice Neubauer · Hannover |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 23 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 29.00 | 151.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1509.11 | 1507.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.70 | 35.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | 0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | 0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.52 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |