← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Aug 29, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Bacher
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 44% | 2.20 |
| Nurnberg win | 30% | 3.16 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.80 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Nurnberg +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.62 |
| Under | 41% | 2.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Semir Telalović · Nurnberg |
| 43' | 🟨 | Felix Götze · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Luis Engelns · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 60' | 🟨 | Marcel Hoffmeier · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 70' | 🟨 | Fabio Gruber · Nurnberg |
| 72' | 🟨 | Julian Justvan · Nurnberg |
| 84' | 🟨 | Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 454.00 | 1520.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1396.36 | 1520.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.47 | -15.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| league points | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.23 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.76 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |