← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 24, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: F. Bickel
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 40% | 2.57 |
| Greuther Furth win | 34% | 2.90 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.70 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth +0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Holstein Kiel +0.25 | 46% | 2.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.68 |
| Under | 42% | 2.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | David Zec · Holstein Kiel |
| 25' | 🟨 | Jannik Dehm · Greuther Furth |
| 31' | ⚽ | Jonas Therkelsen · Holstein Kiel |
| 56' | 🟨 | Branimir Hrgota · Greuther Furth |
| 59' | 🟨 | Marco Komenda · Holstein Kiel |
| 62' | 🟨 | Magnus Knudsen · Holstein Kiel |
| 73' | 🟨 | Alexander Bernhardsson · Holstein Kiel |
| 81' | 🟨 | Lasse Rosenboom · Holstein Kiel |
| 89' | 🟨 | Marcus Müller · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pelle Boevink · Greuther Furth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kasper Davidsen · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 8 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Greuther Furth | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stefan Schwab · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | ⚽ | John Tolkin · Holstein Kiel |
| coach days |
| 115.00 |
| 23.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1399.00 | 1495.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.25 | -19.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | — |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 15.02 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.02 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |