← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 24, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: T. Bauer
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bielefeld win | 49% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 |
| Dresden win | 24% | 4.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden −0.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Bielefeld −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.57 |
| Under | 39% | 2.52 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Niklas Hauptmann · Dresden |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lukas Boeder · Dresden |
| 57' | ⚽ | Joel Grodowski · Bielefeld |
| 67' | 🟨 | Julian Kania · Bielefeld |
| 67' | 🟨 | Lars Bünning · Dresden |
| 74' | 🟥 | Christopher Lannert · Bielefeld |
| 76' | 🟨 | Mael Corboz · Bielefeld |
| 78' | 🟨 | Felix Hagmann · Bielefeld |
| 87' | 🟨 | Stefan Kutschke · Dresden |
| 90' | ⚽ | Luca Herrmann · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 21 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bielefeld | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| venue | SchücoArena |
| coach days | 785.00 | 419.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | — |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | — |
| elo | 1430.52 | 1312.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.56 | -38.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | — |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | — |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.32 | -2.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |