← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 23, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: E. Weisbach
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 55% | 1.77 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.10 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 21% | 4.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.75 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.75 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.58 |
| Under | 39% | 2.46 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand