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Hannover 3–1 Magdeburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 23, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: R. Hempel

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover win45%2.20
Magdeburg win28%3.78
Draw27%3.63

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover −0.2553%1.90
Magdeburg −0.2547%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.68
Under43%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Hayate Matsuda · Hannover
40'🟨Noël Aséko · Hannover
43'⚽Ime Okon · Hannover
45'🟨Max Geschwill · Magdeburg
54'🟨Lubambo Musonda · Magdeburg
56'🟨Enzo Leopold · Hannover
59'🟨Marcus Mathisen · Magdeburg
63'⚽Martijn Kaars · Magdeburg
90'🟨Daisuke Yokota · Hannover
90'⚽Benjamin Källman · Hannover

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
23Shots14
8On target6
4Corners2
22Fouls11
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHannoverMagdeburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.710.71
cards avg (last 5)3.203.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeinz-von-Heiden-Arena
coach days144.00234.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.20
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.402.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.604.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.206.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.012.98
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.17
dominance (last 5)0.480.46
elo1495.811486.57
elo momentum (last 5)34.45-27.11
eye test v10.100.22
eye trend v10.150.25
first sub minute (last 10)58.9050.20
form points (last 5)11.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.602.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.571.42
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.660.67
matches since blank9.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.2085.00
possession avg (last 5)51.8054.20
rest days14.0014.00
season ppg3.001.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.80-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.4012.20
skill v10.630.95
sot against avg (last 5)3.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.40
state index0.37-0.49
sterile dominance v10.390.72
threat rate (last 10)0.260.22
threat rate (last 3)0.240.25
threat rate (last 5)0.240.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00