← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 23, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: R. Hempel
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hannover win | 45% | 2.20 |
| Magdeburg win | 28% | 3.78 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.63 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hannover −0.25 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Magdeburg −0.25 | 47% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Hayate Matsuda · Hannover |
| 40' | 🟨 | Noël Aséko · Hannover |
| 43' | ⚽ | Ime Okon · Hannover |
| 45' | 🟨 | Max Geschwill · Magdeburg |
| 54' | 🟨 | Lubambo Musonda · Magdeburg |
| 56' | 🟨 | Enzo Leopold · Hannover |
| 59' | 🟨 | Marcus Mathisen · Magdeburg |
| 63' | ⚽ | Martijn Kaars · Magdeburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daisuke Yokota · Hannover |
| 90' | ⚽ | Benjamin Källman · Hannover |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 22 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hannover | Magdeburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena |
| coach days | 144.00 | 234.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1495.81 | 1486.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.45 | -27.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.63 | 0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.37 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |