← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 10, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: D. Schlager
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 41% | 2.35 |
| Bielefeld win | 32% | 3.06 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bielefeld −0.25 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.70 |
| Under | 43% | 2.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Noah Joel Sarenren Bazee · Bielefeld |
| 38' | 🟨 | Stefano Russo · Bielefeld |
| 45' | ⚽ | Tim Handwerker · Bielefeld |
| 51' | 🟨 | Maximilian Großer · Bielefeld |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jonas Thomas Kersken · Bielefeld |
| 69' | 🟨 | Tim Handwerker · Bielefeld |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jonas Thomas Kersken · Bielefeld |
| 70' | 🟥 | Jonas Thomas Kersken · Bielefeld |
| 87' | 🟨 | Marvin Mehlem · Bielefeld |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 9.00 | 771.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1517.44 | 1408.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.80 | -21.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 8.02 | 7.71 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | -0.11 |
| solidity v1 | -1.39 | — |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.99 | — |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | — |