← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 9, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Petersen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 38% | 2.52 |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 35% | 2.76 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern +0 | 52% | 1.85 |
| FC Schalke 04 +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Adrian Gantenbein · FC Schalke 04 |
| 44' | 🟨 | Maxwell Gyamfi · Kaiserslautern |
| 52' | 🟨 | Mahir Emreli · Kaiserslautern |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Marlon Ritter · Kaiserslautern |
| 66' | 🟨 | Emil Højlund · FC Schalke 04 |
| 75' | 🟨 | Vitalie Becker · FC Schalke 04 |
| 85' | 🟨 | Leon Robinson · Kaiserslautern |
| 90' | 🟨 | Naatan Skyttä · Kaiserslautern |
| 90' | 🟨 | Janik Bachmann · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kaiserslautern | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Fritz Walter Stadion |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 130.00 | 100.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 1.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1454.02 | 1415.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.61 | -29.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.58 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 6.29 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | -0.16 |
| solidity v1 | — | -1.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.69 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | — | 2.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | — | 1.61 |