← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 9, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: W. Haslberger
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 39% | 2.47 |
| Hannover win | 36% | 2.76 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.76 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf +0 | 52% | 1.84 |
| Hannover +0 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.62 |
| Under | 41% | 2.46 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Ime Okon · Hannover |
| 12' | 🟨 | Boris Tomiak · Hannover |
| 29' | 🟨 | Cédric Itten · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 40' | 🟨 | Sotiris Alexandropoulos · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 42' | 🟨 | Kenneth Schmidt · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 53' | 🟨 | Mustapha Bundu · Hannover |
| 63' | 🟨 | Matthias Zimmermann · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Boris Tomiak · Hannover |
| 87' | ⚽ | Benjamin Källman · Hannover |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jamil Siebert · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Merkur Spiel-Arena |
| Tim Rossmann · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hayate Matsuda · Hannover |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 1285.00 | 130.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1495.41 | 1477.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.49 | 27.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.88 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 6.69 | 5.98 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.40 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |