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Fortuna Dusseldorf 0–2 Hannover

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 9, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: W. Haslberger

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fortuna Dusseldorf win39%2.47
Hannover win36%2.76
Draw26%3.76

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fortuna Dusseldorf +052%1.84
Hannover +048%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.62
Under41%2.46

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Ime Okon · Hannover
12'🟨Boris Tomiak · Hannover
29'🟨Cédric Itten · Fortuna Dusseldorf
40'🟨Sotiris Alexandropoulos · Fortuna Dusseldorf
42'🟨Kenneth Schmidt · Fortuna Dusseldorf
53'🟨Mustapha Bundu · Hannover
63'🟨Matthias Zimmermann · Fortuna Dusseldorf
65'⚽ (pen)Boris Tomiak · Hannover
87'⚽Benjamin Källman · Hannover
90'🟨Jamil Siebert · Fortuna Dusseldorf
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots10
1On target3
5Corners2
18Fouls14
6Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFortuna DusseldorfHannover
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.460.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.630.63
cards avg (last 5)2.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMerkur Spiel-Arena
Tim Rossmann · Fortuna Dusseldorf
90'🟨Hayate Matsuda · Hannover
3.40
coach days1285.00130.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.406.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.262.92
defensive leak (last 5)0.230.03
dominance (last 5)0.520.50
elo1495.411477.50
elo momentum (last 5)-34.4927.69
eye test v10.880.37
eye trend v1-0.110.36
first sub minute (last 10)60.7059.20
form points (last 5)5.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.700.57
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
keeper form v10.620.73
matches since blank20.008.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.8081.80
possession avg (last 5)49.4053.00
rest days6.695.98
season ppg0.003.00
shot diff avg (last 5)1.40-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.0013.80
skill v10.630.58
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.204.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.005.00
state index-0.400.31
sterile dominance v10.150.23
threat rate (last 10)0.240.27
threat rate (last 3)0.250.26
threat rate (last 5)0.260.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40