← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 9, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: T. Gansloweit
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Magdeburg win | 39% | 2.60 |
| Dresden win | 35% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.69 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Dresden +0.25 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Magdeburg +0.25 | 45% | 2.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.63 |
| Under | 40% | 2.37 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 23 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion |