← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 2, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: F. Prigan
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 42% | 2.30 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 32% | 3.16 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.71 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 52% | 1.94 |
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.73 |
| Under | 43% | 2.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | David Zec · Holstein Kiel |
| 29' | ⚽ | Marcel Hoffmeier · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ivan Nekić · Holstein Kiel |
| 73' | 🟨 | Laurin Curda · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 84' | ⚽ | Armin Gigović · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robert Wagner · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | ⚽ | Filip Bilbija · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Home Deluxe Arena |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 1493.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1525.24 | 1525.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.59 | 30.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | -0.61 |
| solidity v1 | — | -1.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | -1.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | — | 2.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | — | 1.65 |