← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 2, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: M. Burda
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 41% | 2.33 |
| Bochum win | 32% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.56 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Darmstadt −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.69 |
| Under | 43% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Isac Lidberg · Darmstadt |
| 6' | 🟨 | Fabian Nürnberger · Darmstadt |
| 16' | 🟨 | Leandro Morgalla · Bochum |
| 33' | ⚽ | Moritz Broschinski · Bochum |
| 45' | ⚽ | Isac Lidberg · Darmstadt |
| 47' | ⚽ | Isac Lidberg · Darmstadt |
| 50' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Sissoko · Bochum |
| 56' | ⚽ | Aleksandar Vukotić · Darmstadt |
| 68' | 🟨 | Matúš Bero · Bochum |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fraser Hornby · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor |
| coach days | 335.00 | 213.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1432.01 | 1520.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.43 | 9.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.56 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | -0.25 |
| solidity v1 | -1.11 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.01 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.15 | 1.08 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 1.09 |