← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Aug 1, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Hempel
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 42% | 2.32 |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 32% | 3.08 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Hertha +0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.65 |
| Under | 41% | 2.35 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Moussa Sylla · FC Schalke 04 |
| 23' | ⚽ | Nikola Katic · FC Schalke 04 |
| 32' | 🟨 | Adrian Gantenbein · FC Schalke 04 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Christopher Antwi-Adjei · FC Schalke 04 |
| 66' | 🟨 | Diego Demme · Hertha |
| 74' | 🟨 | Felipe Sánchez · FC Schalke 04 |
| 89' | 🟨 | Nikola Katic · FC Schalke 04 |
| 89' | 🟨 | Timo Becker · FC Schalke 04 |
| 89' | ⚽ | Sebastian Grønning · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nikola Katic · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Veltins Arena |
| 90' | 🟥 | Nikola Katic · FC Schalke 04 |
| coach days | 92.00 | 181.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1406.55 | 1445.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.49 | 4.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.58 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | 0.26 |
| solidity v1 | -2.32 | -1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.69 | 25.08 |
| state index | -1.13 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.89 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.44 | 2.63 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 1.08 |