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Regensburg 2–2 Karlsruhe

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, May 11, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: E. Weisbach

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe win49%1.95
Regensburg win26%3.76
Draw25%3.80

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Regensburg +0.551%1.91
Karlsruhe +0.549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.83
Under47%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe
17'⚽Rasim Bulić · Regensburg
31'⚽Dženis Burnić · Karlsruhe
39'🟨Dženis Burnić · Karlsruhe
55'🟨Lilian Egloff · Karlsruhe
65'⚽Eric Hottmann · Regensburg
90'🟨Marcel Beifus · Karlsruhe

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
20Shots19
3On target6
5Corners3
13Fouls10
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRegensburgKarlsruhe
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.570.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.530.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.700.57
cards avg (last 5)1.402.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJahnstadion Regensburg
coach days
10.00
1926.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.12
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.404.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.891.93
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.06
dominance (last 5)0.420.47
elo1311.951490.56
elo momentum (last 5)13.4728.80
eye test v10.210.42
eye trend v10.540.32
first sub minute (last 10)58.8062.10
form points (last 5)5.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
keeper form v10.680.80
league points27.0052.00
league rank19.009.00
matches since blank2.006.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)65.4076.60
possession avg (last 5)34.4044.00
rest days7.717.00
scorer concentration0.310.24
season ppg0.791.53
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.00-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.6012.40
skill v1-2.09-0.46
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.304.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.605.20
state index-0.820.09
sterile dominance v1-1.65-0.61
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.270.26
threat rate (last 5)0.290.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80