← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, May 9, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Hartmann
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 67% | 1.43 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.00 |
| Nurnberg win | 14% | 7.35 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln +1.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Nurnberg +1.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.52 |
| Under | 37% | 2.63 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | 🟨 | Fabio Gruber · Nurnberg |
| 46' | ⚽ | Janis Antiste · Nurnberg |
| 62' | 🟨 | Tim Drexler · Nurnberg |
| 66' | 🟨 | Rafael Lubach · Nurnberg |
| 67' | ⚽ | Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
| 87' | 🟨 | Denis Huseinbašić · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enrico Valentini · Nurnberg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 23 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 0 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.87 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 342.00 |
| 8.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1411.74 | 1545.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.49 | -28.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | — |
| league points | 45.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 5.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -12.20 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | 0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.50 |
| state index | -1.09 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |