← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, May 3, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: P. Alt
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 45% | 2.15 |
| Darmstadt win | 30% | 3.23 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.85 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Darmstadt +0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under | 34% | 2.91 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Philipp Förster · Darmstadt |
| 23' | ⚽ | Ludovit Reis · Hamburger SV |
| 58' | ⚽ | Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV |
| 60' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Vukotić · Darmstadt |
| 60' | 🟨 | Davie Selke · Hamburger SV |
| 69' | 🟨 | Andreas Müller · Darmstadt |
| 75' | 🟨 | Sebastian Schonlau · Hamburger SV |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jonas Meffert · Hamburger SV |
| 80' | ⚽ | Davie Selke · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | ⚽ | Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| coach days |
| 244.00 |
| 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1446.75 | 1564.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.88 | -33.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | 1.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| league points | 39.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 63.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | 1.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| state index | 0.20 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |