← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, May 2, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Schröder
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 53% | 1.82 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 23% | 4.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 +0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| SC Paderborn 07 +0.75 | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under | 37% | 2.65 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Anton Donkor · FC Schalke 04 |
| 40' | ⚽ | Raphael Obermair · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 48' | ⚽ | Marvin Mehlem · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 59' | 🟨 | Paul Seguin · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| coach days |
| 1.00 |
| 1401.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.28 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1445.79 | 1521.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.66 | -19.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | 0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| league points | 41.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 6.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.69 | — |
| state index | -0.46 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |