← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 26, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Petersen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 55% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.97 |
| Nurnberg win | 21% | 4.59 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.79 |
| Under | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Janis Antiste · Nurnberg |
| 28' | 🟨 | Caspar Jander · Nurnberg |
| 31' | 🟨 | Janis Antiste · Nurnberg |
| 32' | 🟨 | Andre Hoffmann · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 45' | ⚽ | Mahir Emreli · Nurnberg |
| 61' | ⚽ | Julian Justvan · Nurnberg |
| 68' | ⚽ | Danny Schmidt · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 71' | ⚽ | Danny Schmidt · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 78' | ⚽ | Shinta Karl Appelkamp · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 81' | 🟨 | Rafael Lubach · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 23 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 3 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.86 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| venue | Merkur Spiel-Arena |
| coach days |
| 1180.00 |
| 329.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.33 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1529.90 | 1434.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.95 | -8.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| league points | 49.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 7.31 | 7.31 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | 1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |