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Regensburg 1–1 Braunschweig

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 26, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: L. Erbst

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig win39%2.54
Regensburg win34%2.85
Draw27%3.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig +053%1.83
Regensburg +047%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.94
Under50%1.94

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Robin Ziegele · Regensburg
6'⚽Jannis Nikolaou · Braunschweig
26'🟨Jannis Nikolaou · Braunschweig
58'🟨Sargis Adamyan · Regensburg
89'🟨Levente Szabó · Braunschweig

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
7Shots8
4On target4
7Corners1
12Fouls11
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRegensburgBraunschweig
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.630.63
cards avg (last 5)2.202.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJahnstadion Regensburg
coach days
207.00
542.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.17
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.803.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.002.78
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.14
dominance (last 5)0.440.48
elo1303.731403.15
elo momentum (last 5)10.8239.32
eye test v1-0.290.01
eye trend v10.870.19
first sub minute (last 10)56.4051.70
form points (last 5)6.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)3.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.851.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.301.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.650.67
league points25.0033.00
league rank19.0016.00
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.8077.40
possession avg (last 5)35.4044.60
rest days5.987.00
scorer concentration0.290.34
season ppg0.781.06
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.80-0.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.8013.60
skill v1-1.63-0.35
sot against avg (last 5)5.205.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.104.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.00
state index-0.880.02
sterile dominance v1-1.63-0.77
threat rate (last 10)0.290.28
threat rate (last 3)0.390.37
threat rate (last 5)0.320.31
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.60