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Hertha 1–1 Magdeburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 25, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Schwengers

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hertha win41%2.35
Magdeburg win35%2.81
Draw24%4.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Magdeburg −0.2553%1.84
Hertha −0.2547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over69%1.39
Under31%3.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

42'🟨Marcus Mathisen · Magdeburg
44'⚽Lubambo Musonda · Magdeburg
45'⚽Linus Gechter · Hertha
55'🟨Márton Dárdai · Hertha
56'🟨Michaël Cuisance · Hertha
90'🟨Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson · Hertha
90'🟨Dominik Reimann · Magdeburg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
11Shots19
5On target6
4Corners4
15Fouls8
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHerthaMagdeburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.700.65
cards avg (last 5)2.601.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOlympiastadion Berlin
coach days
83.00
114.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.15
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.00-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.206.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.523.36
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.07
dominance (last 5)0.510.48
elo1451.851513.74
elo momentum (last 5)60.65-7.88
eye test v10.31-0.04
eye trend v1-0.22-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)61.6053.40
form points (last 5)13.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.651.49
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.580.69
league points39.0053.00
league rank13.003.00
matches since blank6.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2083.60
possession avg (last 5)44.6058.60
rest days5.215.21
scorer concentration0.240.29
season ppg1.221.66
shot diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.2012.40
skill v1-0.091.11
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.80
squad age25.08—
state index0.43-0.08
sterile dominance v1-0.520.99
threat rate (last 10)0.290.23
threat rate (last 3)0.290.18
threat rate (last 5)0.290.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.00