⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Karlsruhe 1–0 Greuther Furth

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 20, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: F. Heft

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe win39%2.50
Greuther Furth win34%2.87
Draw28%3.52

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe +053%1.82
Greuther Furth +047%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.69
Under43%2.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

50'🟨Dženis Burnić · Karlsruhe
68'🟨Nicolai Rapp · Karlsruhe
75'⚽Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe
76'🟨Maximilian Dietz · Greuther Furth
79'🟨Felix Klaus · Greuther Furth
83'🟨Marcel Franke · Karlsruhe

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots13
4On target2
4Corners5
17Fouls13
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKarlsruheGreuther Furth
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.660.72
cards avg (last 5)2.601.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBBBank Wildpark
coach days
1905.00
109.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.08
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.603.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.212.18
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.20
dominance (last 5)0.440.46
elo1472.211407.29
elo momentum (last 5)-26.66-18.28
eye test v1-0.09-0.45
eye trend v10.160.28
first sub minute (last 10)61.5064.50
form points (last 5)5.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.720.60
league points45.0036.00
league rank9.0014.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.006.00
matches since win1.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6080.60
possession avg (last 5)47.4041.80
rest days7.008.79
scorer concentration0.270.28
season ppg1.451.16
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.80-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.2010.00
skill v10.03-0.24
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.60
state index-0.36-0.94
sterile dominance v1-0.15-0.22
threat rate (last 10)0.260.26
threat rate (last 3)0.280.26
threat rate (last 5)0.260.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60