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Darmstadt 3–1 Hannover

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 20, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Burda

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Darmstadt win44%2.20
Hannover win29%3.28
Draw27%3.65

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Darmstadt −0.2551%1.91
Hannover −0.2549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.71
Under44%2.22

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Fraser Hornby · Darmstadt
25'🟨Sei Muroya · Hannover
51'🟨Fabian Kunze · Hannover
55'🟨Marcel Halstenberg · Hannover
65'🟨Matondo-Merveille Papela · Darmstadt
67'🟨Clemens Riedel · Darmstadt
82'⚽Andreas Voglsammer · Hannover
83'⚽Killian Corredor · Darmstadt
90'🟨Ron-Robert Zieler · Hannover
90'⚽ (pen)Fraser Hornby · Darmstadt

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots13
7On target5
4Corners8
14Fouls15
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDarmstadtHannover
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.18
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.670.72
cards avg (last 5)1.601.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMerck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor
coach days
231.00
19.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.15
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.602.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.007.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.552.77
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.08
dominance (last 5)0.610.50
elo1431.591463.61
elo momentum (last 5)15.15-33.75
eye test v11.00-0.58
eye trend v10.07-0.21
first sub minute (last 10)58.7057.00
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.940.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.690.72
league points35.0043.00
league rank15.0011.00
matches since blank7.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2075.00
possession avg (last 5)49.6047.00
rest days8.028.02
scorer concentration0.310.20
season ppg1.131.39
shot diff avg (last 5)5.20-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)15.6013.80
skill v10.32-0.41
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.503.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.402.80
state index0.15-0.56
sterile dominance v1-0.34-0.60
threat rate (last 10)0.300.32
threat rate (last 3)0.290.29
threat rate (last 5)0.310.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.60