← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 20, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Burda
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 44% | 2.20 |
| Hannover win | 29% | 3.28 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.65 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Hannover −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.71 |
| Under | 44% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Fraser Hornby · Darmstadt |
| 25' | 🟨 | Sei Muroya · Hannover |
| 51' | 🟨 | Fabian Kunze · Hannover |
| 55' | 🟨 | Marcel Halstenberg · Hannover |
| 65' | 🟨 | Matondo-Merveille Papela · Darmstadt |
| 67' | 🟨 | Clemens Riedel · Darmstadt |
| 82' | ⚽ | Andreas Voglsammer · Hannover |
| 83' | ⚽ | Killian Corredor · Darmstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ron-Robert Zieler · Hannover |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Fraser Hornby · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| coach days |
| 231.00 |
| 19.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1431.59 | 1463.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.15 | -33.75 |
| eye test v1 | 1.00 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| league points | 35.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 8.02 | 8.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |