← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 19, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Osmers
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 43% | 2.24 |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 32% | 3.07 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.84 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Hamburger SV +0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 1.47 |
| Under | 35% | 2.81 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Paul Seguin · FC Schalke 04 |
| 3' | 🟥 | Kenan Karaman · FC Schalke 04 |
| 12' | 🟨 | Immanuel Pherai · Hamburger SV |
| 14' | 🟨 | Silvan Hefti · Hamburger SV |
| 15' | ⚽ | Ron Schallenberg · FC Schalke 04 |
| 41' | ⚽ | Emir Sahiti · Hamburger SV |
| 43' | ⚽ | Emir Sahiti · Hamburger SV |
| 57' | 🟨 | Moussa Sylla · FC Schalke 04 |
| 57' | 🟨 | Dennis Hadžikadunić · Hamburger SV |
| 81' | ⚽ | Moussa Sylla · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Justin Heekeren · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 26 |
| 3 | On target | 12 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| coach days |
| 200.00 |
| 169.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1452.08 | 1580.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.59 | -3.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| league points | 40.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 6.29 | 8.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.82 | 1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 26.69 | — |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.94 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |