← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 19, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: F. Prigan
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 48% | 2.01 |
| Nurnberg win | 27% | 3.55 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.91 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| SC Paderborn 07 +0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.59 |
| Under | 40% | 2.45 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Mahir Emreli · Nurnberg |
| 20' | ⚽ | Tjark Lasse Scheller · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ilyas Ansah · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 49' | ⚽ | Ilyas Ansah · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 70' | 🟨 | Raphael Obermair · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 74' | 🟨 | Tjark Lasse Scheller · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 77' | ⚽ | Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 81' | 🟨 | Julian Justvan · Nurnberg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Rafael Lubach · Nurnberg |
| 88' | 🟨 | Berkay Yılmaz · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Casper Terho · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mahir Emreli · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 3 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 322.00 |
| 1388.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1444.38 | 1514.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.69 | -31.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | 1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 49.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 44.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 6.69 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | 0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |