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Braunschweig 2–0 Kaiserslautern

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 19, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: R. Hempel

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig win37%2.66
Kaiserslautern win36%2.66
Draw27%3.53

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kaiserslautern +050%1.94
Braunschweig +050%1.94

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.68
Under42%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'🟨Max Marie · Braunschweig
23'🟨Tim Breithaupt · Kaiserslautern
28'🟨Lino Tempelmann · Braunschweig
31'🟨Leon Bell Bell · Braunschweig
45'🟨Kenny Prince Redondo · Kaiserslautern
51'⚽Lino Tempelmann · Braunschweig
53'⚽Rayan Philippe · Braunschweig
60'🟨Sven Köhler · Braunschweig
62'🟨Paul Jaeckel · Braunschweig
76'🟨Maximilian Bauer · Kaiserslautern

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
19Shots13
5On target2
6Corners3
13Fouls12
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBraunschweigKaiserslautern
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.600.56
cards avg (last 5)2.001.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEintracht-Stadion
coach days
535.00
18.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.11
corner diff avg (last 5)0.003.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.203.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.206.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.222.88
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.26
dominance (last 5)0.460.63
elo1387.091471.69
elo momentum (last 5)28.54-23.41
eye test v10.090.80
eye trend v1-0.060.15
first sub minute (last 10)53.3064.40
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.202.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.181.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
keeper form v10.650.76
league points30.0047.00
league rank17.007.00
matches since blank6.001.00
matches since clean sheet7.006.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2080.00
possession avg (last 5)46.0054.00
rest days7.776.69
scorer concentration0.330.36
season ppg1.001.52
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.407.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.4016.20
skill v1-0.280.49
sot against avg (last 5)5.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.505.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.007.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.406.00
state index-0.26-0.45
sterile dominance v1-0.43-0.06
threat rate (last 10)0.260.30
threat rate (last 3)0.290.33
threat rate (last 5)0.280.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20