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Regensburg 2–0 FC Schalke 04

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 13, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: W. Haslberger

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Schalke 04 win51%1.88
Draw26%3.81
Regensburg win23%4.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Schalke 04 +0.552%1.88
Regensburg +0.548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.74
Under45%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Christian Kühlwetter · Regensburg
24'🟨Paul Seguin · FC Schalke 04
32'🟨Taylan Bulut · FC Schalke 04
34'🟨Mehmet Aydin · FC Schalke 04
72'🟨Aymen Barkok · FC Schalke 04
89'🟨Julian Pollersbeck · Regensburg
90'🟨Nico Ochojski · Regensburg
90'⚽Dejan Galjen · Regensburg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots12
6On target1
4Corners8
12Fouls11
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRegensburgFC Schalke 04
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.220.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.210.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.710.67
cards avg (last 5)2.002.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJahnstadion Regensburg
coach days
194.00
194.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.601.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.204.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.606.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.012.94
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.11
dominance (last 5)0.390.48
elo1290.171472.14
elo momentum (last 5)-0.9314.44
eye test v1-1.050.10
eye trend v10.290.02
first sub minute (last 10)55.4058.10
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
keeper form v10.660.67
league points22.0040.00
league rank19.0012.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet4.004.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8080.60
possession avg (last 5)40.6055.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.330.30
season ppg0.731.38
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.80-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.2012.60
skill v1-0.930.62
sot against avg (last 5)6.605.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.404.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.404.40
squad age—26.69
state index-1.11-0.00
sterile dominance v1-0.650.56
threat rate (last 10)0.250.23
threat rate (last 3)0.250.22
threat rate (last 5)0.250.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00